Feral Historian: The Probability Broach: L. Neil Smith’s libertarian fever-dream

by Stephan Kinsella on June 3, 2026

Interesting discussion of L. Neil Smith’s The Probability Broach by The Feral Historian, who has some interesting episodes. As my friend Rob Wicks noted, “I’ve never seen any of the review channels I watch review this.”

This is a review of and commentary on L. Neil Smith’s The Probability Broach, a libertarian/anarcho-capitalist sci-fi novel. The reviewer of course mangles things a bit, e.g. he takes patent and IP law for granted (as did Smith!),¹ and he also mangles a bit the case against regulations of corporations: it is not only that if the company pollutes there might be physical retaliation; but even in a private-law society there would be law and the ability to sue for damage, as Rothbard pointed out in his classic “Law, Property Rights, and Air Pollution” (in Economic Controversies).

But it’s an interesting commentary on one of the libertarian sci-fi novels that is actually worth reading. Many (most?) libertarian novels are terrible, preachy, amateur, or downright unreadable, such as Vin Suprynowicz’s The Black Arrow: A Tale of the Resistance (2005), Dani and Eytan Kollin’s amateurish and nonsensical The Unincorporated Man (2010), and many others by L. Neil Smith himself which are either pulpy schlock or even worse, like the unreadable Hope (2001) by Aaron Zelman and Smith. There are others I just could not get into, e.g. Matthew Bruce Alexander’s Withur We, mostly because of the actual ridiculous title: Wĭthûr Wē. I recalled liking J. Neil Schulman’s Alongside Night when I read it in college, but re-reading it recently… it did not age well (and the movie version is horrible, just like the movie versions of Atlas Shrugged).

Other libertarian or quasi-libertarian sci-fi novels actually worth reading are: Vernor Vinge’s A Fire Upon the Deep, A Deepness in the Sky, and Across Realtime, Heinlein’s The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Ayn Rand’s sci-fi-adjacent Atlas Shrugged, John C. Wright’s sci-fi trilogy The Golden Age, Ira Levin’s This Perfect Day, Sean Gabb’s intriguing The Break, Daniel Suarez’s amazing Daemon (which would make a great movie). I’m sure there are a few others I haven’t read, or have forgotten, and YMMV.

In any case, The Probability Broach is part of Smith’s “North American Confederacy” (NAC) series, which also includes two others I quite enjoyed, The Gallatin Divergence and Tom Paine Maru (a great line: “’Constitution, Lucille,’ It was the first time that I had sworn in Confederate.”). The novel’s premise is that in this other time line Jefferson inserted the word “unanimous” into this line in the Declaration of Independence in 1776: “governments derive their just powers from the unanimous consent of the governed…”.

This became the ideological seed that sets the stage for a a more marked divergence during the Whiskey Rebellion in 1794. In actual history, in 1794 western Pennsylvania farmers protested Alexander Hamilton’s excise tax on whiskey; President George Washington personally led 13,000 militia troops to crush the uprising, while moderate congressman Albert Gallatin helped calm the rebels. This dramatically strengthened federal power and affirmed the Constitution and federal tax power.

In the novel, Gallatin decides to join the rebels instead. He writes and reads the radical “New Covenant” (a libertarian manifesto built on Jefferson’s “unanimous consent” principle), leads the armed farmers in a march on Philadelphia, duels and kills George Washington, and triggers the total collapse of the federal government. This gives rise to the quasi-stateless, anarcho-capitalist North American Confederacy.

As summarized by Grok:

These three novels are all part of L. Neil Smith’s “North American Confederacy” (NAC) series — a long-running libertarian science-fiction saga set in an alternate-history universe (the “Gallatin Universe”) where North America diverged into a stateless, anarcho-capitalist/libertarian society.

The series’ core premise is that a small historical change around 1794 CE (during the Whiskey Rebellion era, involving figures like Albert Gallatin vs. Alexander Hamilton/George Washington) allowed individual liberty, private property, free markets, and voluntary cooperation to triumph over strong central government (“Federalists”/statists). Technology like the “Probability Broach” (an interdimensional/FTL portal device, originally invented for space travel by a dolphin physicist in the NAC) enables contact between parallel timelines, time travel, and interstellar exploration.

Publication Order and In-Universe Timeline

The Probability Broach (1979/1980) — First in publication order and internal chronology. Introduces the entire setting.
Tom Paine Maru (1984) — Published third in the early series. Set a couple of centuries after the events of The Probability Broach (roughly 400+ A.L./Anno Liberatis).
The Gallatin Divergence (1985) — Published shortly after Tom Paine Maru. Set even later, in 343 A.L. (A.D. 2119), with heavy time-travel elements going back to the 1794 divergence point.

Smith was thus also a precursor to the The Universal Principles of Liberty: see Smith,Unanimous Consent and the Utopian Vision, in How much richer would be in a free society? L. Neil Smith’s great speech; and KOL473 | The Universal Principles of Liberty, with Mark Maresca of The White Pillbox.